The Future of Open Source

Open source has seen phenomenal interest and growth in recent years. In many ways, it has been a great success story. Clearly, it is no longer just hype, or a temporary fad. Yet it is interesting to think about the conditions that would enable the open-source movement to remain viable, and thrive. This chapter explores the driving forces behind this model, and the constraints on it, discussing both the factors likely to promote the continuous growth of the open-source movement and those that could lead to its downfall. The sustainability of the open-source model depends on several factors. Some of these are internal to the model itself, including the economic viability of the model, the availability of competent contributors, and the extensibility and flexibility of the model. Other factors are external, including the potential reactions of proprietarysoftware developers and policymakers, as well as technological developments leading to evolutionary paths that are fundamentally incompatible with the model. Below I will discuss these factors, in an attempt to locate potential discontinuities that require new approaches from the open-source model if it is to maintain its vitality.